Introduction: Recently, all over the first round of infection period, many transport capacity is insufficient, individual release of holiday notice, enterprises on the post personnel limited, many enterprises and downstream device parking or negative, the overall capacity utilization rate decline significantly, consumption of raw material intention is low, procurement enthusiasm decline, hold more stalemate just need mentality. Near double Dan, domestic and foreign markets are relatively quiet, but according to the latest customs data, propylene glycol exports are still bright, showing an increasing trend compared with last year.
First, domestic construction is difficult to stimulate the demand is weak.
Recently, the domestic propylene glycol capacity utilization rate showed a downward trend, the main Zhejiang railway wind and Hunan Yueyang Changde equipment shutdown maintenance, as of this week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 73%, down 2% last week compared with last week, down 3% year on year, while the market price showed a steady decline, temporarily not affected by the change of the supply end, the main demand end to follow up insufficient. The correlation between supply and price is weak. Compared with the overall capacity utilization rate of downstream unsaturated resin, the overall capacity utilization rate of UPR this year has been at a low level of around 20%. With the decline of the price of propylene glycol and other domestic raw materials, the cost pressure has been released, and the adequate supply on the floor has been maintained. Near the end of the year, downstream and terminal gradually into the state of holiday, logistics industry forecast the next 1-2 months around the first wave of epidemic peak, coupled with extreme weather in some areas, logistics delay probability increases, transportation and personnel on the post blocked, factory shipment pressure, new single is difficult to continue, is expected to drop the load or parking device dynamic, and before the festival can stock up on raw materials, The market is more wait-and-see a small amount of just need mentality.
Second, sufficient domestic supply and export performance.
As can be seen from the above chart, with the production of new propylene glycol units in China this year and the stable operation of other units, the overall supply is sufficient compared with last year, which is expected to increase by 29% year-on-year. While the import volume is expected to be about 66,000 tons this year, which is expected to decrease by about 6% year-on-year, and the overall domestic supply is expected to increase by about 23% compared with last year.
According to the latest customs statistics, according to the classification comparison of producing and selling countries, domestic propylene glycol imports from January to November 2022 are still mainly from Thailand, South Korea, the United States and Saudi Arabia, the comprehensive top four accounted for 92%, compared with last year is more consistent. The main supply is Dow, SK, Leander and other pharmaceutical, food grade, and this year, the domestic market demand situation and category self-supply increased, the overall import dependence reduced. With the increase of domestic supply, the market price gradually returned to the pre-epidemic state, and the export was still outstanding. According to customs data, the cumulative export volume from January to November 2022 is 181,600 tons, up 46.54 percentage points year-on-year, and has exceeded the export level of the whole year of last year. It is expected that the export volume in December is still considerable compared to the same period of last year, and it is expected that the annual export volume will increase by 43% compared to last year.
According to the statistics of producing and selling countries, domestic propylene glycol is mainly exported to the Russian Federation, Turkey, India and other European countries, Asia, Africa, America and other countries, among which the Russian Federation is still the main export destination, accounting for about 10% of the total export volume, the comprehensive propylene glycol export direction is the same as last year. According to the registration place of enterprises, Shandong Province is the main export place, the main production enterprises are concentrated here, the transportation to the port is convenient, there is a certain geographical distance advantage. Compared with the whole year of last year, the export volume in the first 11 months of 2022 has increased significantly, but the export volume of other provinces is relatively small. It is expected that Shandong Province is still the main export destination last year.
In the long run, with the domestic epidemic gradually passing the special peak, the market is expected to enter the stage of replenishment before and after the Spring Festival, but it still needs to pay attention to the downstream operation and changes in domestic equipment, as well as the direction of cost and profit guidance, or there may be some risks.
(Source: Oilchem)