During the Spring Festival holiday, international crude oil closed up, from the upstream aromatic industry chain cost support is strong, and affected by the supply decline, the domestic anhydride industry accumulation pressure is weaker than in previous years, the domestic anhydride market is still expected to open high.
Costs drive up expectations
During the Spring Festival holiday, the international crude oil as a whole showed an upward trend, the related products of the phthalic anhydride industry chain as a whole mainly rose, the industrial chain price showed top-down transmission, but the downward transmission level decreased, the price of orthoxylene in Asia rose slightly, and the price of phthalic anhydride in Asia was flat. In the upstream aromatic industry chain products pushed up, from the cost side of the strong support, has become the main factor driving the market.
Overhauls have increased and supplies have fallen
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, some anhydride devices stopped, resulting in a significant decline in the capacity utilization rate of the domestic anhydride industry, according to Longzhong data monitoring, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic anhydride industry during the Spring Festival holiday fell to about 60%, compared with the capacity utilization rate of the industry before the Spring Festival fell by about 5%, the supply decline, to a certain extent, alleviated the pressure on the market supply. After the Spring Festival, the domestic anhydride industry accumulation pressure is obviously weaker than in previous years, the north naphthalene method anhydride industry stock is limited, the adjacent method anhydride industry has a certain accumulation, but the overall inventory is lower than the same period in previous years.
Decline in demand
From the point of view of demand, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, DOP devices gradually entered the period of reducing production and production, most of the DOP market devices in January operated normally, the average capacity utilization rate was maintained at 65% level, and the New Year holiday capacity utilization rate fell to 39% level, with a 26% decline.
Before the Spring Festival holiday, DBP enterprises are still preparing for the holiday, among which Jianye and Hongbo have stopped in advance for the holiday, and other enterprises have basically no parking plan. During the Spring Festival holiday, the capacity utilization rate of DBP units dropped to around 62%.
During the Spring Festival holiday, the construction of the main downstream plasticizer industry declined significantly, and the unsaturated resin industry basically stopped for a holiday, which resulted in a significant decline from the demand side and became the main factor in suppressing the anhydride market. After the Spring Festival, the downstream plasticizer industry started to recover one after another, and the capacity utilization rate of the plasticizer industry rebounded, but the unsaturated resin industry started to recover is still slow. After the holiday, demand is expected to recover, giving the market some support.
Overall, the cost support from the upstream aromatic industry chain is strong, the loss pressure of the domestic phthalic anhydride industry is not reduced, and the willingness of the industry to support the price is strong, which has become the main factor supporting the market. From the perspective of the inventory of the anhydride industry, affected by the decline in industry construction, to a certain extent, the market supply pressure is alleviated, driven by the superimposed export orders, the domestic anhydride industry Spring Festival accumulation is weaker than in previous years, and the market supply pressure is not large. It is expected that the short-term domestic phthalic anhydride market may still be high.
(Source: Oilchem)